Posted by iranrevolution on June 24, 2009
The Iranian regime has been hopeful that the protests against the rigged presidential elections would have died out by now. This has after all been a carefully planned ballot box Coup d’état the likes of which has rarely, if ever, been seen before. Little did Khamenei expect or foresee the wrath that this last nail in the coffin of the republic would unleash. Khamenei has certainly at no point during his twenty years as supreme leader been publicly as humiliated as he is now. It is not just the crowds on the streets or on the rooftops that demand his removal, it is also the defiant attitude of Moussavi, Karroubi and even Rafsanjani that is making life miserable for this old man.
But the Islamic republic of Iran is a shrewd and ruthless player. It has succeeded in putting an end to 25 centuries of monarchical rule in Iran. In its early years, it survived assassinations, Khamenei himself is paralysed in his right arm due to a bomb planted in his microphone and Rafsanjani escaped another one, it managed to fight off eight years of Iraqi aggression, interestingly enough with Khamenei as president and Moussavi as its premier, but most importantly, it managed to kill or imprison or else silence every opposition to its dogmatic policies. In fact, quite a few of those men who accompanied Khomeini to Tehran from Paris were amongst those who were later executed. Even the first president of the republic, Banisadr, was impeached and later managed to flee the country allegedly dressed as a woman. So this regime has no qualms about getting rid of its former allies, Moussavi is certainly not going to be an exception and he should know, a lot of the atrocities happened during his tenor as premier. I am not suggesting that he was directly responsible for any of it, but he sure must have been aware of them. Of course, people can change.
To his credit, Moussavi has shown some backbone. Rezai, the former Revolutionary Guards’ head has already faltered and withdrawn his objection to the poll result – God knows how much pressure was exerted on him, but Moussavi is still defiant even though he must very much be aware of that a case against him is being prepared at this very moment. I can already see his broken image in court, much like Mossadegh, being remembered as the man who tried to challenge the 2009 ballot box Coup d’état. This is not an unlikely scenario. The hard line Keyhan newspaper (all links in Persian) has already accused Moussavi of being directly responsible for all the deaths and mayhem (his supporters, Kayhan accuses amongst other infinitely unbelievable stuff, were armed and martyred a mother and her child who had taken cover in a kindergarten), the intelligence minister (nothing intelligent about this man) suggests that Moussavi’s stab was heavily infiltrated by terrorist elements and Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi in a letter to Khamenei compares Moussavi to Banisadr, we all can see where that is heading.
There is however other possibilities. Khamenei is apparently buying time by agreeing to a five days postponement of the Guardian Council’s final report on the election. Perhaps, the protests ebb out, hardly likely, or Moussavi buckles. Perhaps Rafsanjani manages to get enough of the members of the Assembly of Experts on his side and challenges Khamenei’s position. Perhaps divisions within the revolutionary guards surface and throw in a new factor in the game. And perhaps the popular uprising brings down this regime once and for all.
The outcome is uncertain, watch this space.
Posted in Iran, Revolution | Tagged: Ahmadinejad, Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah, Banisadr, Coup, Coup d’état, Democracy, Election, Guaridan Council, Haeri Shirazi, Iran, Karroubi, Kayhan, Keyhan, Khamenei, Khomeini, Mossadegh, Mousavi, President, Rafsanjani, Revolution, Revolutionary guards, Supreme leader, Tehran | 3 Comments »
Posted by iranrevolution on June 22, 2009
So where do we go from here? Yesterday was quieter on the streets of Tehran than it has been for days. The thugs, getting the go ahead from Khamenei, showed their true ugly faces and insulted, injured, imprisoned and killed our beloved sisters and brothers with impunity.
Yesterday was the time to assess the situation and the achievements made so far. It was time to regroup, to reorganize and to deliberately decide our next move.
Make no mistake, the basij militia on the streets is not a show of force, it is a true show of weakness. The regime is faltering; its inner circles are at each others throats. Grand Ayatollahs are openly criticizing the so called supreme leader. Rafsanjani’s own relatives are apprehended. The speaker of the parliament voices discontent and even the Guardian Council has admitted that in 50 cities the number of votes has been more than 100% in a direct rebuff to Khamenei’s suggestion that the election has been fair.
We need to keep the momentum up, to have the upper hand, to be the leading player in this battle for achieving our inalienable right to be free, to dictate the rules and to decide what our next step shall be. We must make this regime to counter our moves and not vice versa, we need to lead, to be strong. We must not flinch nor blink; we must stand united and be sure within ourselves, in our depths and in our hearts that the victory is in sight.
I talk to friends in Tehran each morning and each time I hear the same message. The cries of ‘Allahu Akbar’ and ‘Death to dictator’ are louder each passing night. This my fellow countrymen is the key to victory, stand united and let the entire city now that you are not alone, that your neighbours are not alone, that you are a majority, that you stand together and that you are ready to walk the line. Smile and think of how Khamenei feels in his bunker as he hears your cries for freedom. Instil fear in the hearts of your basij opponents and soon, reminiscent to the last revolution, the basij will disperse like dandelions in wind and your brothers in armed forces will join you in this new Iranian revolution. Victory is indeed in sight.
Posted in Iran, Revolution | Tagged: Allahu Akbar, Ayatollah, Basij, Death to dictator, Election, Freedom, Guardian Council, Iran, Khamenei, Militia, Parliament, Rafsanjani, Regime, Revolution, Tehran | 17 Comments »
Posted by iranrevolution on June 18, 2009
How secure is Khamenei? There are good reasons to believe that Khamenei is struggling not just for HIS president, he is also struggling to keep himself in the office of supreme leader.
Unconfirmed reports are coming in that the Assembly of Experts has converged. Remember that the Assembly of Experts is the sole organ in the country that has the power to dismiss the supreme leader. Remember also that the head of the Assembly of experts is Rafsanjani whose rift with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad is obvious even to the novice observer. If this report is true, the obvious question is WHY have they converged now? Should Khamenei worry?
Update – The Assembly of Experts welcomed the election turnout but made no mention of the result (Source) which clearly shows that Rafsanjani opposes Ahmadinejad and is therefore in collision course with Khamenei.
Then we have the case with Mousavi who after getting the cold hand from Khamenei, turned to the clergies of Qom. If there is anywhere that Khamenei is vunerable, even with his most ardent followers, it is his religious credentials. He was elevated from Hojatoleslam, a mid ranking clergy to Ayatollah over night just for the sake of taking the office of supreme leader. Mousavi, cleverly, questioned the wisdom and the religious authority of the supreme leader by turning to Qom clergy. And he has indeed reason to be satisfied with the outcome.
First out was the Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, whose rift with Khomeini himself some 20 years ago has always put him in collision course with Khamenei. And now the latest, Grand Ayatollah Saanei and Grand Ayatollah Ardebili, both issuing statements to the effect that the security forces should operate within the framework of law and furthermore
وی ازنهادهای مسئول انتخابات خواسته است تا به شکایت مردم در زمینه نتیجه انتخابات ریاست جمهوری با دقت و سرعت و به نحوی رسیدگی کنند که موجب رضایت مردم را فراهم آورد و آنان را قانع کند.
He (Ardebili) has asked the relevant organs to pay attention to people’s complaints regarding the result of the presidential election with accuracy and haste and in a manner that satisfies and convinces the people.
So how secure is Khamenei?
Posted in Iran, Revolution | Tagged: Ardebili, Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah, Election, Hojatoleslam, Iran, Khamenei, Montazeri, Mousavi, Qom, Rafsanjani, Revolution, Saanei, Supreme leader, انتخابات | 7 Comments »