Revolution in Iran

Thoughts on and about the Iranian Revolution

Posts Tagged ‘Basij’

Pasdar* State

Posted by iranrevolution on June 29, 2009

Who controls whom? Is Khamenei in control of the Revolutionary Guards or are the Guards dictating policy and Khamenei is simply their front man? Who is the puppeteer and who is the puppet? As the 2009 Coup d’état enters its third week, this question is becoming of ever greater importance.

If Khamenei is still at the helm, then one have to ask why he has chosen to keep Ahmadinejad as president and why he has blatantly alienated half of the inner circle? What are his gains and what are his losses? Indeed, putting the pros and cons from his perspective on a scale, one begins to wonder.

Pros may be:

  1. Having a president who truly believes in an Islamic jurisprudence embodied by Khamenei.
  2. Preparing the way for his son, Mojtaba (and there is so much rumours doing the rounds that there has to be some truth there) to succeed him.

Cons have proved to be far more numerous

  1. Regime has lost its legitimacy both in and outside of Iran (and I am not getting into the debate if it ever has been legitimate)
  2. The tension and infighting within the ruling establishment has got to unprecedented levels, threatening the very existence of the regime from inside.
  3. The ensuing street protests on a level never seen since the Islamic revolution of 1979. Khamenei have managed singlehandedly to morph the election results protests into a genuine call for a complete overhaul of the regime. Effectively demanding its demise, a revolution has landed on Khamenei’s doorstep.
  4. The infallibility of Khamenei and the office he holds is seriously in question. Even if it would survive the current turmoil, the genie is out of the bottle and Khamenei is never going to be taken seriously nor is it likely that there is going to be a singular supreme leader in the future.

It should have been apparent even to Khamenei; that the stakes are truly high and I am frankly not convinced that he actually is grooming his son to succeed him. Iran is not North Korea. It remains then to believe that Khamenei chose to risk everything only to retain a president who is ideologically close to him instead of accepting a president who opposes his views on some major issues but that instead would probably guarantee, at least for the near future, the survival of the Islamic republic.

Hence, in comes the second scenario. The Revolutionary Guards, once an undisciplined group of volunteers with political views as broad as there are Iranians and with not much more weaponry than Kalashnikovs, have steadily gained power in Iran during the past thirty years. The young revolutionaries, who survived the internal cleansings of the corps, have climbed the proverbial ladder; spread their influence in every imaginable institution, governmental, economical or else in Iran. This has happened with not so little help from Khamenei himself who, specially at the beginning of his rein was a weak figure, a compromise to fill the void of shunned Ayatollah Montazeri; and who needed all the help he could get to establish himself as the supreme leader. So he bought the support of the Revolutionary Guards by simply agreeing to all their demands. Four years ago he went one step further, fiddled strongly with the election results back then, ousted the reformist Karroubi from the race and humiliated his former ally Rafsanjani, who because he embodied all that was wrong with the regime never stood a chance anyways, and handed the presidency to Ahmadinejad. With Ahmadinejad as president, the revolutionary corps was effectively running the country.

Four years on and the commanders of this mighty military, economic and political force were not too happy to lose their privileges by the hands of a former prime minister. One they helped to get rid of some 20 odd years earlier by simply abolishing his office all together. This time around Khamenei, as argued above, had much to lose if he would decide to meddle with the result just as he did last time. So the revolutionary guards staged a sort of a palace coup d’état, effectively forcing Khamenei to follow their lead. The pros and cons for the guards?

Pros:

  1. They maintain their power.
  2. Khamenei becomes a weak figure with not much authority, letting the Guards to expand their influence by directly dictating the state policies
  3. They can continue to do all this in the background with little direct attention to their affairs.
  4. There would be internal disputes in the highest echelons of power in Iran. But that suits the Revolutionary Guards just fine, offering them a golden opportunity to eliminate dissent within the ruling elite.

Cons:

  1. They would risk a revolution. The Revolutionary Guards expected that and unleashed the Basij militia on the people. Force, they assumed, will solve this problem

I conclude therefore by asserting that what we have witnessed so far is a coup d’état by the Revolutionary Guards. Unless the new Iranian revolution manages to keep up its momentum, we’ll witness much bloodshed inside and outside of the inner circles. This would indeed be the worst possible outcome for the Iranian nation, one that certainly this most sophisticated people do not deserve.

United we stand, divided we’ll be ruled by the Revolutionary Guards.

*Pasdar = guard, a member of the Revolutionary Guards

Posted in Iran, Revolution | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Death to dictator

Posted by iranrevolution on June 22, 2009

So where do we go from here? Yesterday was quieter on the streets of Tehran than it has been for days. The thugs, getting the go ahead from Khamenei, showed their true ugly faces and insulted, injured, imprisoned and killed our beloved sisters and brothers with impunity.

Yesterday was the time to assess the situation and the achievements made so far. It was time to regroup, to reorganize and to deliberately decide our next move.

Make no mistake, the basij militia on the streets is not a show of force, it is a true show of weakness. The regime is faltering; its inner circles are at each others throats. Grand Ayatollahs are openly criticizing the so called supreme leader. Rafsanjani’s own relatives are apprehended. The speaker of the parliament voices discontent and even the Guardian Council has admitted that in 50 cities the number of votes has been more than 100% in a direct rebuff to Khamenei’s suggestion that the election has been fair.

We need to keep the momentum up, to have the upper hand, to be the leading player in this battle for achieving our inalienable right to be free, to dictate the rules and to decide what our next step shall be. We must make this regime to counter our moves and not vice versa, we need to lead, to be strong. We must not flinch nor blink; we must stand united and be sure within ourselves, in our depths and in our hearts that the victory is in sight.

I talk to friends in Tehran each morning and each time I hear the same message. The cries of ‘Allahu Akbar’ and ‘Death to dictator’ are louder each passing night. This my fellow countrymen is the key to victory, stand united and let the entire city now that you are not alone, that your neighbours are not alone, that you are a majority, that you stand together and that you are ready to walk the line. Smile and think of how Khamenei feels in his bunker as he hears your cries for freedom. Instil fear in the hearts of your basij opponents and soon, reminiscent to the last revolution, the basij will disperse like dandelions in wind and your brothers in armed forces will join you in this new Iranian revolution. Victory is indeed in sight.

Posted in Iran, Revolution | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 17 Comments »

Coup d’état vs Revolution in Iran

Posted by iranrevolution on June 16, 2009

For the past few days I have been unable to write anything at all. I have been pinned in front of my computer, reading news, looking at images and clips, twitting and retwitting. Iran, its election, the attempted coup d’état and the popular reaction has preoccupied me completely.

I was only a young boy when the last great revolution happened. I can clearly remember the charged atmosphere, the demonstrations, the slogans, the fear and the excitement. I even partook in one of those huge demonstrations against the Shah; a sea of people chanting death to the Shah. I am not quite sure what I thought of it all back then. It must have felt exciting, exhilarating and at the same time, from my point of view, lacking meaning and purpose, the implications of what we were doing unknown. Back then, the Shah was not just a king, he was almost a God. I remember kids speculating if he ever went to the loo and if he did, did he wipe his own ass? Shah responded by different means, he declared marshal law and at times his soldiers would fire indiscriminately into the crowd, he apologised to the people and said that he understood their legitimate calls for democratic reforms, he even appointed a former opposition figure as prime minister but that too was too late. He fled the country; Khomeini returned to Iran from exile and 10 days after that, the regime of Shah was gone for ever.

Thirty years on, one revolution, an eight year war with almost a million casualties, thousands of political activist jailed and executed, personal freedoms curtailed, millions of Iranians exiled or self exiled, the revolution now finally seems to have come a full circle.

As each night people are shouting God is great on their rooftops, reminiscent of the nights before the first revolution, and as they gather in their million to protest against the regime in precisely the same street as I once did in my youth, I wonder how this one will end. Seven people died yesterday by the hand of the basij, the conservative paramilitary group close to current president Ahmadinejad, I hope that they are the last to be killed by this regime. I hope one day very soon, the people of Iran can proudly declare that they live in a true democracy, that the revolution they started thirty years ago, the last great revolution, has finally succeeded.

Posted in Iran, Revolution | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

 
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